ARPU Analysis and Key Metrics Framework
Understanding why Stocktwits generates 20x the ARPU of CoinGecko, and what it means for each investment thesis.
💵 The ARPU Puzzle
| Metric | CoinGecko | Stocktwits | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $40M | $15M | 2.7x |
| MAU | 40M | 750K | 53x |
| ARPU | $1.00 | $20.00 | 0.05x |
CoinGecko has 53x the users but only 2.7x the revenue. Stocktwits monetizes each user 20x more effectively. Why?
📊 Drivers of the ARPU Differential
1. 🌎 Geography Effect (Est. 3-5x contribution)
| Market | Est. CPM Range | CoinGecko Mix | Stocktwits Mix |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | $5-15 | ~25-30% | ~80-90% |
| EU | $3-8 | ~20-25% | ~5-10% |
| Asia | $1-4 | ~30-40% | <5% |
| RoW | $0.50-2 | ~15-20% | <5% |
Insight: A US-heavy audience is worth 3-5x a global audience on ad revenue alone. This is a structural advantage for Stocktwits that CoinGecko cannot easily replicate.
2. ⏱️ Engagement Depth (Est. 2-4x contribution)
| Behavior | CoinGecko | Stocktwits |
|---|---|---|
| Primary use case | Look up price → leave | Post, read, argue, follow |
| Session duration | ~2-5 min (est.) | ~15-30 min (est.) |
| Sessions/day | 1-2 | 3-5+ for power users |
| Content creation | None (passive consumption) | Active (10% create, 90% consume) |
| DAU/MAU ratio | Unknown (likely 5-10%) | 47% (350K/750K) |
Insight: Stocktwits users are living in the app. CoinGecko users are visiting the site. More time = more ad impressions = higher ARPU. The 47% DAU/MAU ratio at Stocktwits is exceptional engagement.
3. 📈 Ad Product Quality (Est. 1.5-2x contribution)
| Factor | CoinGecko | Stocktwits |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue mix | 1/3 ads, 1/3 API, 1/3 referral | 90% ads |
| Ad sales model | Mostly programmatic | 45% direct sales |
| Sales org | Minimal | 35+ person sales team |
| Advertiser type | Crypto exchanges, DeFi | Financial services, brokerages |
| Premium inventory | Limited | Significant |
Insight: Direct-sold ads command 2-5x programmatic CPMs. Stocktwits has invested heavily in ad sales infrastructure. CoinGecko's revenue mix is more diversified but lower-yield per user.
4. 🎯 Intent Quality (Qualitative)
| Signal | CoinGecko | Stocktwits |
|---|---|---|
| User mindset | "What's the price of X?" | "Should I buy/sell X right now?" |
| Trading proximity | Research phase | Execution phase |
| Advertiser value | Awareness | Conversion |
Insight: Stocktwits users are closer to the trade decision, making them more valuable to advertisers targeting active traders.
💡 The Core Strategic Insight
CoinGecko: 🟡 Monetization Problem, Not Reach Problem
- 40M users generating only $1 each
- Users are passive, global, and transient
- Thesis: Deepen engagement → Enable transactions → 10-50x ARPU
Stocktwits: 🔴 Growth Problem, Not Monetization Problem
- 750K users generating $20 each (already 20x CoinGecko)
- Users are active, US-based, and sticky
- Thesis: Grow user base → Maintain engagement → Scale revenue
🔮 Refined WYHTB Statements
CoinGecko: "Engagement → Monetization"
We have to believe that we can convert passive price-checkers into active traders within the CoinGecko experience, capturing transaction revenue from users who currently leave to execute elsewhere.
Implicit beliefs:
- ✅ Users want to trade where they research (convenience > habit)
- ✅ We can build a trading UX competitive with existing options
- ✅ DeFi/self-custody is not a barrier for mainstream users
- ✅ We don't lose users to competitors while building this
Stocktwits: "Growth → Scale"
We have to believe that with better product and marketing, we can 3-5x the user base while maintaining the engagement intensity that makes current users so valuable.
Implicit beliefs:
- ✅ Product stagnation (not market saturation) explains flat growth
- ✅ New users will engage as deeply as existing users
- ✅ We can out-execute Robinhood/WeBull on social
- ✅ Crypto-rails products attract new users without alienating existing ones
📈 Key Metrics to Track
CoinGecko: Engagement & Conversion Funnel
| Category | Metric | Why It Matters | Baseline | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reach | MAU | Scale of opportunity | 40M | Maintain |
| Reach | Traffic source mix | Platform risk | TBD | Google <40% |
| Engagement | DAU/MAU ratio | Engagement depth | TBD | 20%+ |
| Engagement | Session duration | Time on platform | ~3 min? | 10+ min |
| Engagement | Pages per session | Exploration depth | TBD | ↑ |
| Engagement | Return visitor rate | Habit formation | TBD | ↑ |
| Conversion | Wallet connection rate | Top of funnel | 0% | 5%+ |
| Conversion | Funded wallet rate | Money in system | 0% | 1%+ of MAU |
| Conversion | First trade rate | Activation | 0% | 50%+ of funded |
| Monetization | Trading MAU | Active traders | 0 | 1-2M |
| Monetization | Trades per trading user | Intensity | 0 | 5+/month |
| Monetization | Revenue per trading user | Unit economics | $0 | $50-100/yr |
| Monetization | Blended ARPU | Overall health | $1.00 | $2.50+ Y1 |
North Star Metric: Trading MAU as % of total MAU
Stocktwits: Growth & Engagement Preservation
| Category | Metric | Why It Matters | Baseline | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | MAU | Core challenge | 750K | 2M+ (Y2) |
| Growth | MAU growth rate | Velocity | 0% | 20%+ annually |
| Growth | New user acquisition | Funnel health | TBD | Track |
| Growth | CAC | Efficiency | N/A | <$20 |
| Engagement | DAU/MAU ratio | Must preserve | 47% | >40% |
| Engagement | Posts per DAU | Content creation | TBD | Maintain |
| Engagement | Time spent per DAU | Depth | TBD | Maintain |
| Retention | D7 retention (new users) | Early stickiness | TBD | 30%+ |
| Retention | D30 retention (new users) | Long-term value | TBD | 20%+ |
| Retention | Cohort engagement parity | Quality of growth | N/A | New = existing |
| Conversion | Crypto product MAU | New product adoption | 0 | 15%+ of MAU |
| Conversion | Wallet funding rate | Transaction readiness | 0 | 5%+ of MAU |
| Monetization | Crypto ARPU | New revenue stream | $0 | $50+/yr |
| Monetization | Blended ARPU | Overall health | $20 | $50+ |
| Risk | Churn rate | Transition risk | TBD | Flat |
North Star Metric: MAU growth rate while maintaining DAU/MAU > 40%
⚖️ The Fundamental Trade-off
| Dimension | CoinGecko | Stocktwits |
|---|---|---|
| What you're buying | 📊 Reach (40M users) | 👥 Engagement (47% DAU/MAU) |
| What you need to build | 🟡 Engagement + monetization | 🔴 Growth engine |
| Which is harder | 🟡 Behavior change is hard | 🔴 Growth has been elusive |
| Risk profile | 🟡 Can you change passive users? | 🔴 Can you grow without dilution? |
| Time to signal | 🟢 6-12 months | 🟡 12-18 months |
| Downside protection | 🟢 $40M revenue base | 🟡 $15M revenue base |
🚦 Metric Dashboards
CoinGecko Board Scorecard
| Category | Metric | Baseline | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Y1 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reach | MAU | 40M | 40M+ | ||||
| Engagement | DAU/MAU | TBD | 20% | ||||
| Engagement | Avg session (min) | TBD | 8+ | ||||
| Conversion | Wallet connects | 0 | 2M | ||||
| Conversion | Funded wallets | 0 | 400K | ||||
| Monetization | Trading MAU | 0 | 200K | ||||
| Monetization | ARPU | $1.00 | $2.50 | ||||
| Revenue | Total | $40M | $60M | ||||
| Risk | Google traffic % | TBD | <40% |
Stocktwits Board Scorecard
| Category | Metric | Baseline | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Y1 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | MAU | 750K | 1M | ||||
| Growth | Growth rate | 0% | 33% | ||||
| Engagement | DAU/MAU | 47% | >40% | ||||
| Engagement | Posts/DAU | TBD | Maintain | ||||
| Retention | D7 (new users) | TBD | 30% | ||||
| Conversion | Crypto MAU | 0 | 100K | ||||
| Monetization | ARPU | $20 | $30 | ||||
| Revenue | Total | $15M | $25M | ||||
| Risk | Churn rate | TBD | Flat |
📐 Implications for Financial Modeling
The ARPU analysis suggests the following modeling priorities:
CoinGecko Model Drivers
- Conversion funnel rates (wallet → funded → trading)
- Trading intensity (trades per user per month)
- Take rate (revenue per $ traded)
- Engagement improvement (session duration, DAU/MAU)
Stocktwits Model Drivers
- User growth rate (with/without marketing spend)
- Engagement preservation (DAU/MAU by cohort)
- Crypto product adoption rate
- ARPU expansion (base + crypto)
See: [[FWDI - Financial Modeling Plan]] for detailed model specifications.